philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician

The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. Lebow &G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. For millennia, great thinkers and scholars have been working to understand the quirks of the human mind. Princeton University Press, 2005. Stop trying to convince others about the right answer. Opening story: Smokejumpers and the Mann Gulch fire (Montana) of 1949. Every individual possesses cognitive tools and accumulated knowledge that they regularly rely upon. Seizing and freezing: the phenomenon where we stick to our guns. In part, we do this for psychological comfort. Actively seek out reasons why you might be wrong. GET BOOK > The training, techniques and talent described in my book "Superforecasting" can help your organization manage strategic uncertainty. We will stand on any soapbox to sell it with tremendous enthusiasm. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. (2001). Do recognize the ideas and the roles being applied and operate within them. [12][13] In his earlier work in this area, he showed that some forms of accountability can make humans more thoughtful and constructively self-critical (reducing the likelihood of biases or errors), whereas other forms of accountability can make us more rigid and defensive (mobilizing mental effort to defend previous positions and to criticize critics). Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Present schooling still relies heavily on the lecture. Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. Opening story: Teacher Erin McCarthy assigned her 8th grade students a textbook from 1940 to see if they accepted the information without question or if they noticed any problematic anachronisms. Pavel Atanasov, J. Witkowski, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock (Under Review), The person-situation debate revisited: Forecasting skill matters more than elicitation method. How do we know what we know, and how do we know if were right? Harish uses a powerful combination of techniquescommon understandings, non-judgmental questions, flexible thinkingto win over some in the audience. 9 Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in But a small amount of knowledge can create big problems with the Dunning-Kruger trap as confidence climbs faster than competence. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. Philip Tetlockin Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Tetlocks career has been based on the assessment of good judgment. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. In this mode of thinking, changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity, not one of moral weakness or a failure of conviction. The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. Hypotheses have as much of a place in our lives as they do in the lab. Detaching your opinions from your identity. Values are core principles like excellence, generosity, freedom, fairness, integrity, etc. Who you are should be a question of what you value, not what you believe., Better judgment doesnt necessarily require hundreds or even dozens of updates. Its not a matter of having low self-confidence. Philip Tetlock carries out "forecasting tournaments" to test peoples' ability to predict complex events. The three modes (and a quick explanation of each) are: Preacher - we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting our ideals as sacred Prosecutor - we will pick apart the logic of the opposition's idea to prove our own point, marshaling the flaws in others Imposter syndrome: Phenomenon where competence exceeds confidence. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. [34][35][36][37] Tetlock has also co-authored papers on the value of ideological diversity in psychological and social science research. Keeping your books I was most interested in the ideas from Part 1 and wish he focused on those more. Group identification helps us achieve these goals. Enter your email below and join us. With appointments in the School of Arts & Sciences and the Wharton School, Tetlock works at the intersection of political science, psychology, and management science. How can we know? Critical Review. Opening story: Looks at Grants cousin, Ryan, who spent many years studying and training to become a neurosurgeon only to realize later that he wasnt thrilled with his career choice and investment in time. Part IV: Conclusion If we want to gain alignment we have to understand where everyone is starting from. Confident humility: An ideal wherein the individual has faith in their abilities but retains sufficient doubt and flexibility to recognize they could be wrong. (2011). Daryl has gone on to befriend a number of former members who have similarly disavowed their past beliefs. Preachers: We pontificate and promote our ideas (sometimes to defend our ideas from attack). The illusion of explanatory depth: We think we know more about things than we really do. Dont persecute a preacher in front of their own congregation. Lazaridis was brilliant and turned BlackBerry into a popular business tool. Wilbur Wright: Honest argument is merely a process of mutually picking the beams and motes out of each others eyes so both can see clearly.. Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Abstract Research on judgment and choice has been dominated by functionalist assumptions that depict people as either intuitive scientists animated. We routinely fall into one or more of these roles when we engage with others and in our solitary conversations with ourselves. He stubbornly clung to the idea that people wouldnt want to use smartphones for games, entertainment, and other tasks (beyond email, phone calls, and texting). [29][30] In this view, political actorsbe they voters or national leadersare human beings whose behavior should be subject to fundamental psychological laws that cut across cultures and historical periods. The interrogators would aggressively assault the subjects world-views (the goal was to mentally stress the participants). Politicians work well in government settings. Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Ideological Beholder? Exploring these questions reveals the limits of our knowledge. Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 3 likes Like "Here's a very simple example," says Annie Duke, an elite professional poker player, winner of the World Series of Poker, and a former PhD-level student of psychology. Students whose identities and ideologies were strongly intertwined (non-flexible thinkers) cracked. Political Psychology, 15, 567-577. New York: Elsevier. **Chapter 1: A Preacher, a Prosecutor, a Politician, and a Scientist ** Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. People as intuitive prosecutors: The impact of social control motives on attributions of responsibility. It looks like the CFO was in Prosecutor mode - calling out the flaws in your reasoning, marshalling arguments to prove you wrong and win her case. , traces the evolution of this project. [28], Tetlock has a long-standing interest in the tensions between political and politicized psychology. We seek peak happiness (intensity), rather than small, steady positive happiness (frequency). He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? The slavery debate in antebellum America: Cognitive style, value conflict, and the limits of compromise", "Disentangling reasons and rationalizations: Exploring perceived fairness in hypothetical societies", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Philip_E._Tetlock&oldid=1140127422. Be confident in your ability to learn more than in your knowledge (which is malleable). Conventional vs. new views of intelligence: Psychologists find that test takers who second-guess their answers usually have better outcomes with their revised answers. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Sign up for the free Mental Pivot Newsletter. Make a list of conditions in which your forecast holds true. Social-Functionalist Metaphors for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor. The child is premature. Focusing on results might be good for short-term performance, but it can be an obstacle to long-term learning.. "Everyone who plays poker knows you can either fold, call, or raise [a bet]. So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement and in a January 02007 SALT talk. This results in more extreme beliefs. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. He is author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? In each of the three mindsets, the truth takes a back seat to other considerations: being right, defending your beliefs, and currying favor. Home; About. As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. It implies that we have arrived at an optimal solution. Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. The overview effect: Astronauts experience space travel gain a unique understanding of humanity. The Adversarial Collaboration Project, run by Cory Clark and Philip Tetlock, helps scientists with competing perspectives design joint research that tests both arguments. From 1984 to 2004 Tetlock tracked political pundits' ability to predict world events, culminating in his 2006 book Expert Political Judgment. As in his book, Tetlock describes why a select few people seem to be able to make accurate predictions about the future people he refers to as superforecasters. We have no awareness of these rapid-fire processes but we could not function without them. Some smokejumpers held on to their equipment (as they were trained to do) despite the added weight (possibly) preventing them from surviving. Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness. (2004). Opening story: Marie-Helene Etienne-Rousseau of Quebec gives birth to a child. Department of Psychology / Stephen A. Levin Building / 425 S. University Ave / Philadelphia, PA 19104-6018Phone: (215) 898-7300 / web@psych.upenn.edu, Welton Chang [Psychology Graduate Student], 2023 The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania, https://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/Tetlock%20CV%20Updated%20feb%202%2. Visit www . 1 Department of Political Science, George Washington University, 2201 G. Street NW, Washington, DC 20052; e-mail: jimg@gwu.edu; 2 Departments of Psychology and Political Science, Ohio State University, 142 Townshend Hall, 1885 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43210; e-mail: tetlock.1@osu.edu. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. This is the mindset of the scientist. How Do We Know? [16], In addition to his work on the bias-attenuating versus bias-amplifying effects of accountability, Tetlock has explored the political dimensions of accountability. It now turns out there are some people who are spectacularly good at . Preachers work well with a congregation. Values retain flexibility that opinions do not. Presumes the world is divided into two sides: believers and non-believers. Tetlock, P. E. (2011). Tetlock, P.E., (2000). the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on the usefulness of forecasting tournaments in assessing one key component of good judgment: accuracy); the impact of accountability on judgment and choice; the constraints that sacred values place on the boundaries of the thinkable; the difficult-to-define distinction between political versus politicized psychology; and. Forecasters with the biggest news media profiles were also especially bad. 2019 Ted Fund Donors The book also profiles several "superforecasters." Psychological safety: The ability to take risks without fear of punishment or reprisal. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Opening story: Ursula Mercz, in the late 1800s, was diagnosed as blind but insisted she could see and was completely unaware of this fact. You get to pick the reasons you find most compelling, and you come away with a real sense of ownership over them.. In other words, they may as well have just guessed. By identifying the attributes shared by successful forecasters and the methodologies that allow for accurate forecasting, Tetlock and his team at Good Judgment are able to help companies promote these skills among their employees. Motivational interviewing: The best approach to changing someones mind is to help that person make the change on their own.